# Forward CA/GDP Vulnerability Rankings

## Most Vulnerable (Top 25)

| Rank | Country | Actual CA/GDP | Fitted CA | Resid SD | Skewness | VaR5 | KAOPEN | Old Dep | Youth Dep |
|---:|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | GNQ | -2.35 | -3.52 | 30.27 | -1.97 | -70.69 | -1.25 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| 2 | TUV | 3.25 | 0.74 | 33.35 | -0.38 | -62.94 | — | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | SDN | -3.75 | -10.12 | 20.30 | -3.21 | -56.58 | 0.40 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | MNE | -17.43 | -2.34 | 11.58 | -1.78 | -45.85 | — | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5 | PLW | -34.57 | 1.43 | 9.64 | -0.60 | -43.66 | — | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 6 | MNG | -9.29 | -1.99 | 13.75 | -1.47 | -41.32 | 1.60 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| 7 | LBN | -18.21 | -5.98 | 11.44 | -1.42 | -39.12 | -0.06 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 8 | BTN | -16.80 | 0.51 | 15.65 | 0.03 | -38.71 | -1.25 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 9 | MOZ | -11.60 | -8.27 | 9.47 | -1.09 | -38.28 | -1.25 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| 10 | KGZ | -31.15 | 0.03 | 13.29 | -1.07 | -36.45 | 0.34 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| 11 | DMA | -32.34 | -1.08 | 10.22 | -0.50 | -36.21 | -0.17 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 12 | COG | 1.33 | -2.37 | 15.10 | -0.73 | -30.66 | -1.25 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| 13 | QAT | 17.21 | 5.64 | 18.98 | -0.62 | -30.12 | 2.28 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 14 | TCD | -1.33 | -4.76 | 13.05 | -3.14 | -28.91 | -1.25 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| 15 | MDV | -17.93 | -4.11 | 10.71 | 0.29 | -28.87 | 0.40 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 16 | AZE | 7.83 | 1.77 | 18.02 | -0.54 | -28.46 | -0.25 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 17 | DJI | 22.07 | -2.13 | 24.10 | -0.66 | -28.38 | 1.02 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| 18 | LBR | -21.07 | -3.15 | 10.50 | 0.10 | -27.36 | 1.08 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| 19 | TLS | -26.29 | -0.28 | 107.61 | 0.56 | -27.00 | — | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| 20 | VCT | -18.86 | -6.12 | 5.99 | 0.38 | -26.88 | -1.25 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 21 | STP | -10.18 | -2.27 | 20.42 | 3.70 | -25.65 | 0.52 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| 22 | SYC | -7.52 | -1.42 | 8.11 | 0.05 | -24.32 | 2.28 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 23 | BGR | 0.22 | -1.68 | 7.85 | -1.79 | -22.99 | -0.06 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 24 | KIR | -2.02 | -5.22 | 14.03 | 0.63 | -22.95 | 1.02 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| 25 | GUY | 24.61 | 2.95 | 15.79 | -2.14 | -22.71 | 0.58 | 0.1 | 0.5 |

## Safest (Bottom 10)

| Rank | Country | Actual CA/GDP | Fitted CA | Resid SD | Skewness | VaR5 | KAOPEN | Old Dep | Youth Dep |
|---:|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | MAC | 31.72 | 5.17 | 7.38 | -1.07 | 10.76 | — | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 2 | AND | 15.07 | 4.35 | 3.77 | -0.55 | 10.28 | — | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 3 | SGP | 17.54 | 5.22 | 4.27 | 0.01 | 10.14 | 2.28 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 4 | BRN | 16.56 | 2.15 | 12.68 | 0.44 | 6.49 | — | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| 5 | TWN | 15.71 | 2.06 | 4.28 | 0.39 | 4.62 | — | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 6 | LUX | 13.78 | 0.80 | 2.41 | 1.45 | 3.72 | — | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 7 | ARE | 9.13 | 7.12 | 3.82 | 0.39 | 3.52 | 2.28 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 8 | NOR | 17.13 | 7.35 | 5.16 | -0.04 | 3.11 | 2.28 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 9 | NLD | 9.94 | -0.43 | 2.68 | 0.17 | 2.15 | 2.28 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 10 | CHE | 5.07 | 0.60 | 3.09 | 0.05 | 2.05 | 2.28 | 0.3 | 0.2 |

*VaR5 = fitted CA + country's empirical 5th percentile residual. Gaussian fallback: fitted − 1.645 × SD. Requires ≥5 historical observations.*
*Rankings based on most recent year ≥ 2020. Lower VaR5 = more vulnerable.*